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Nagorno-Karabakh, the small Thirty Years’ War in the Caucasus

From 1618 to 1648 Europe was shattered by the violent and relentless conflict between Protestants and Catholics. After the end of the crusades cycle that had seen the first conflict between Christians and Arabs breaking out, what historians later called the “Thirty Years’ War” was the first and most severe armed conflict between the two...

The future of strategic intelligence

There are currently three types of intelligence transformations, namely conceptual, technological and operational. In the first case, we are dealing with a new and original intelligence paradigm. From a mechanism based on the identification of the need for information-research-processing and analysis-dissemination-feedback, we are shifting to what some people already call “position intelligence”. In other words,...

Evolutions of Strategic Intelligence

What is strategic intelligence currently used for? First and foremost, for correctly orienting the long sequence of decision makers’ interpretations. Secondly, for acting as automatic or non-automatic selector of relevant or non-relevant facts and news for those who have access to the intelligence system. Finally, for correctly connecting intelligence data with the rest of open...

The 17+1 Framework between China and Europe

Commentary: The Chinese courtship of the Mediterranean and Eastern EU is based on two facts: the slow U.S. disengagement from the NATO EU pillar, regardless of its future president, and China’s awareness that it has to deal with an EU which is now a “paper tiger” In March 2019, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang made...

The current situation in Syria

Commentary: The intelligence and military porosity of Assad’s regime is extremely dangerous and could thwart both the pax russica and, above all, the already defined projects of investment in the “New Syria”, mainly by China.  Syria’s current prospects are no longer a return – albeit a laborious one – to an old pre-2015 unitary State,...

The new relationship between Israel and Bahrain

Commentary: The Sunni world knows it can never do without the West to seriously oppose Iran and its proxies. It also needs the U.S. and the EU technologies to make the “energy transition” from oil and gas to renewables. Finally, it needs weapons and technologies, but probably also direct military aid from the United States...

The global market of advanced electromechanical technologies

Commentary: The relationship between electricity, its production and its application to economic and social development will be pivotal in the future. Also, in a short while, we will be able to imagine a “digital” connection between man, work and machine   In 2019, the last year for which we have complete data, the global industry...

Economy in Libya

Strange to say, but the Libyan economy which, as is well-known – depends much, if not almost exclusively, on oil extraction and sale, performed very well in 2017 even at a time of falling prices – currently made more complex by the Covid-19 pandemic which has led to crisis in consumer countries. It should be...

The autonomous military groups in Libya

With a view to currently understanding what is happening in the critical relationship between the Libyan military groups, we need – first and foremost – to look at the role played by the United Arab Emirates. In Yemen, for example, the UAEs, which are primary players in the whole Arab context of the post-“democratic revolutions”,...

The Afghan intelligence services

Commentary: The Afghan Intelligence Services collect information mainly in major cities and in the areas most controlled by the government, and this often leads the decision-makers who use this intelligence to make severe evaluation errors. Currently as in the past, the real problem for Afghanistan is Pakistan, which keeps on supporting terrorist groups operating in...
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